Incubation time of acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and duration of acute HIV infection are independent prognostic factors of progression to AIDS.

The severity and the duration of acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (AHI) are associated with a faster rate of progression to AIDS, but the prognostic value of the length of incubation time of AHI (IncAHI), defined as the time between HIV infection and AHI, on progression to AIDS has not been assessed. We explored this issue prospectively in 70 individuals with documented AHI and a known date of HIV infection. The median IncAHI was 21.5 days (range, 5-70 days), and the median duration of AHI was 15.5 days (range, 3-67 days). The adjusted relative hazard of progression to AIDS or to a CD4(+) count <200x103/mL was 4.23 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40-12.73; P=.01) for the patients with an IncAHI <21.5 days, compared with those with longer IncAHI, and was 3.53 (95% CI, 1.09-11.36; P=.03) for the patients with a duration of AHI >15.5 days, compared with those with shorter duration. Both IncAHI and duration of AHI were independent predictors of progression. This suggests that early pathogenic events before the onset of AHI influence the rate of HIV disease progression.